Rice Management Decisions Using Process-Based Models With Climate-Smart Indicators

Irrigation strategies are keys to fostering sustainable and climate-resilient rice production by increasing efficiency, building resilience and reducing Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions. These strategies are aligned with the Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA) principles, which aim to maximize productivity whilst adapting to and mitigating climate change. Achieve such mitigation, adaptation, and productivity goals- to the extent possible- is described as climate smartness. Measuring climate smartness is challenging, with recent progress focusing on the use of agronomic indicators in a limited range of contexts. One way to broaden the ability to measure climate-smartness is to use modeling tools, expanding the scope of climate smartness assessments. Accordingly, and as a proof-of-concept, this study uses modeling tools with CSA indicators (i.e., Greenhouse Intensity and Water Productivity) to quantify the climate-smartness of irrigation management in rice and to assess sensitivity to climate. We focus on a field experiment that assessed four irrigation strategies in tropical conditions, Continuous Flooding (CF), Intermittent Irrigation (II), Intermittent Irrigation until Flowering (IIF), and Continuous soil saturation (CSS). The DNDC model was used to simulate rice yields, GHG emissions and water inputs. We used model outputs to calculate a previously developed Climate-Smartness Index (CSI) based on water productivity and greenhouse gas intensity, which score on a scale between−1 (lack of climate-smartness) to 1 (high climate smartness) the climate-smartness of irrigation strategies. The CSS exhibited the highest simulation-based CSI, and CF showed the lowest. A sensitivity analysis served to explore the impacts of climate on CSI. While higher temperatures reduced CSI, rainfall mostly showed no signal. The climate smartness decreasing in warmer temperatures was associated with increased GHG emissions and, to some extent, a reduction in Water Productivity (WP). Overall, CSI varied with the climate-management interaction, demonstrating that climate variability can influence the performance of CSA practices. We conclude that combining models with climate-smart indicators can broaden the CSA-based evidence and provide reproducible research findings. The methodological approach used in this study can be useful to fill gaps in observational evidence of climate-smartness and project the impact of future climates in regions where calibrated crop models perform well

Where are the most vulnerable areas to climate induced insecurities and risks in Zimbabwe?

This factsheet gives answers on how climate exacerbates root causes of conflict in Zimbabwe, using spatial hotspot analysis. The findings show that the high/moderate conflict and harsh climate interactions co-occurred principally with low productivity, inequality, and undernutrition hotspots. This occurs in the following districts: Beitbridge, Chiredzi, Mwenezi, and Chipinge. This publication is part of a factsheet series reporting on the findings of the CGIAR FOCUS Climate Security Observatory work in Africa (Kenya, Mali, Nigeria, Senegal, Sudan, Uganda, Zimbabwe). The research is centered around 5 questions: 1. How does climate exacerbate root causes of conflict? 2. Where are hotspots of climate insecurities ? 3.What is the underlying structure of the climate, conflict, and socio-economic system? 4. Are climate and security policies coherent and integrated? 5. Are policy makers aware of the climate security nexus

Where are the most vulnerable areas to climate induced insecurities and risks in Sudan?

This factsheet gives answers on how climate exacerbates root causes of conflict in Sudan, using spatial hotspot analysis. The findings show that areas of high conflict and harsh climate interactions co-occurred with hotspots where socio-economic vulnerabilities (undernutrition, inequality, migration, low productivity) are present. This occurs in north of Uran, Sololo, and north of Obbu (hotspots of inequality and low production), Marsabit Central, Sagante/Jaldesa, and Karare (inequality and low production), and all the socio-economic hotspots in surroundings of Wajir East Township, Wagberi, and Barwago; surroundings of Bulla Mpya, and eastern of Khorof/Harar. This publication is part of a factsheet series reporting on the findings of the CGIAR FOCUS Climate Security Observatory work in Africa (Kenya, Mali, Nigeria, Senegal, Sudan, Uganda, Zimbabwe). The research is centered around 5 questions: 1. How does climate exacerbate root causes of conflict? 2. Where are hotspots of climate insecurities ? 3.What is the underlying structure of the climate, conflict, and socio-economic system? 4. Are climate and security policies coherent and integrated? 5. Are policy makers aware of the climate security nexus

Where are the most vulnerable areas to climate induced insecurities and risks in Uganda?

This factsheet gives answers on how climate exacerbates root causes of conflict in Uganda, using spatial hotspot analysis. The findings show that areas of high conflict and harsh climate interactions co-occurred with hotspots where migration, inequality, and low agricultural productivity are present. This occurs in Lakwor, Oryang Lalano, Palwo, and Parumu. This publication is part of a factsheet series reporting on the findings of the CGIAR FOCUS Climate Security Observatory work in Africa (Kenya, Mali, Nigeria, Senegal, Sudan, Uganda, Zimbabwe). The research is centered around 5 questions: 1. How does climate exacerbate root causes of conflict? 2. Where are hotspots of climate insecurities ? 3.What is the underlying structure of the climate, conflict, and socio-economic system? 4. Are climate and security policies coherent and integrated? 5. Are policy makers aware of the climate security nexus

Climate finance and peace—tackling the climate and humanitarian crisis

2021's Conference of Parties, the 26th UN Climate Change Conference of Parties (COP26), is crucially important as governments—for the first time since the Paris Agreement—are expected to agree on concrete commitments and greater ambitions to limit global warming to 1·5°C. COP26 President-Designate Alok Sharma stated that delivery of US$100 billion in climate finance is going to be the key to whether the goals of COP26 succeed or fail. At the same time, people worldwide have started acknowledging the impacts of the climate crisis on peace and security—otherwise called the climate security nexus.1, 2 The concern then becomes where and how objectives and investments in adaptation and peacebuilding can be aligned, and how trade-offs between climate finance, peace, and security can be minimised or avoided

The development of a farmer decision-making mind map to inform climate services in Central America

The growing complexity of the relationship between climate information and agricultural decision-making necessitates the development of relevant and timely climate services for farmers. These services can effectively support risk management strategies in agriculture by fostering a comprehensive understanding of the intricacies involved in farmer decision-making dynamics. This paper addresses this critical gap by analyzing the drivers influencing decision-making processes that shape adaptation strategies for staple grain and coffee farming systems in Central America. The study answers the following research questions: (i) Does the mind map tool effectively provide a holistic understanding of farmers' decision-making processes? (ii) How do Central American farmers make decisions within their farm systems at multiple timescales? (iii) Which climate factors trigger these decisions? Employing a combination of systematic literature review and a case study in Honduras, the study identifies 13 critical decisions farmers make throughout their crop cycle and their respective triggers. These decisions were grouped into three clusters (production, household, and environmental) and classified into lead-time categories (operational, tactical, and strategic). Findings reveal that farmers base their decisions regarding future climate expectations on their traditional knowledge, religious dates, and memories of recent past seasons' rainfall patterns, and that one of the most significant factors influencing farmers' decisions is food security shortages resulting from extreme events. For example, recent mid-summer droughts have led farmers to prioritize sowing beans over maize in the Primera season, while during the Postrera season, they face challenges due to excess rainfall and the hurricane season. We conclude that the mind map tool developed in this paper provides an effective and appropriate method and that the variation in farmers' decision-making complexity across systems and landscapes presents a significant opportunity to design mind maps that span multiple timescales, facilitating the exploration of decision spaces. Farmers actively seek tailored weather and climate information while still valuing their existing experience and local knowledge, emphasizing the importance of integrating these elements into the development of climate services

Where are the most vulnerable areas to climate induced insecurities and risks in Senegal?

This factsheet gives answers on how climate exacerbates root causes of conflict in Senegal, using spatial hotspot analysis. The findings show that areas of high conflict and harsh climate interactions co-occurred with hotspots where socio-economic vulnerabilities (undernutrition and inequality) are present. This occurs in Dakar, Thienaba, Kelle Gueye, northern of Mbane, western of Bokhol, northern of Ndiayene Pendao, northern of Guede Village, and northern of Fanaye. This publication is part of a factsheet series reporting on the findings of the CGIAR FOCUS Climate Security Observatory work in Africa (Kenya, Mali, Nigeria, Senegal, Sudan, Uganda, Zimbabwe). The research is centered around 5 questions: 1. How does climate exacerbate root causes of conflict? 2. Where are hotspots of climate insecurities ? 3.What is the underlying structure of the climate, conflict, and socio-economic system? 4. Are climate and security policies coherent and integrated? 5. Are policy makers aware of the climate security nexus

Where are the most vulnerable areas to climate induced insecurities and risks in Nigeria?

This factsheet gives answers on how climate exacerbates root causes of conflict in Nigeria, using spatial hotspot analysis. The findings show that areas of high conflict and harsh climate interactions co-occurred with hotspots of socio-economic vulnerabilities where migration and inequality issues are present (local authorities of Kware and Wurno), low productivity (northern limits of Marte and Ngala) and inequality and low productivity (Jere and Konduga local authorities). This publication is part of a factsheet series reporting on the findings of the CGIAR FOCUS Climate Security Observatory work in Africa (Kenya, Mali, Nigeria, Senegal, Sudan, Uganda, Zimbabwe). The research is centered around 5 questions: 1. How does climate exacerbate root causes of conflict? 2. Where are hotspots of climate insecurities ? 3.What is the underlying structure of the climate, conflict, and socio-economic system? 4. Are climate and security policies coherent and integrated? 5. Are policy makers aware of the climate security nexus

Target population of environments for bean breeding in Africa

The target population of environments (TPE) approach aims at enhancing the effectiveness of crop improvement programs to achieve yield and/or genetic gains by helping to classify and prioritize regions based on stress patterns (frequency, onset, intensity and duration) and uses it to recommend improvement in the selection strategy. The beangrowing environments in Ethiopia, Tanzania, and Uganda can be categorized into six different environmental groups (EGs) on the basis of seasonal variation of drought stress under historical and future climates projected using crop-climate prediction models (Jha et al, under review). This brief is based on the results from that study

Can coffee cultivation lead to food security under a changing climate evidence from Western Honduras

Understand how coffee value chain actors address food insecurity of coffee households under climate stress